New Technologies and Gartner's Hype Cycle

Recently we examined some historic economic bubbles, as the market fluctuated, resulting in a peak of activity, and a subsequent burst of the bubble, and settling financial investments. The dot.com bubble bursting in 2000, was a perfect example of how new technologies, can really take off in their beginning stages, subsequently peak, and then burst. But just because the peak activity dropped, did not mean the end of digital technology, internet domains, or the use of the internet. The Gartner group formulated a theory of how new technologies go through a cycle. Based on geographic metaphors, Gartner claims that a new technology will be marked by:

1. A Technology Trigger
2. A Peak of Inflated Expectations
3. A Trough of Disillusionment
4. A Slope of Enlightenment
and finally
5. A Plateau of Productivity

For a graphic representational chart, please examine the following:

http://gsb.haifa.ac.il/~sheizaf/ecommerce/GartnerHypeCycle.gif

That is, a new technology will come onto the market as a rave invention, publicized, marketed, "the hottest innovation in technology." Based on this hype and perception of the new technology, the item, whether it be an Ipod or similar invention, will reach it's peak in sales as well hype surrounding its marketing. This will be followed by a sense of disillusionment, when the item is considered passe' and the hype and promotion of the product slows down. A fourth stage occurs when reassessments are made, on the new technologies actual capabilites and limitations, hence "a slope of enlightenment." There may be improvements made here, and follow up promotion and marketing, such as "the new and improved," etc. Finally, the technological advances levels off in terms of the hype and promotion surrounding the product, as well as the use and sales of the new technology.

In the Gartner Group's own descriptions in describing the emergence of a new technology:

"Technology trigger. A breakthrough, public demonstration, product launch or other event that generates significant press and industry interest."

"Peak of inflated expectations. a phase of overenthusiasm and unrealistic projections during which a flurry of publicized activity by technology leaders results in some successes but more failures as the technology is pushed to its limits. The only enterprises making money at this stage are conference organizers and magazine publishers."

"Trough of disillusionment. The point at which the technology becomes unfashionable and the press abandons the topic, because the technology did not live up to its overinflated expectations."

"Slope of enlightenment. Focused experimentation and solid hard work by an increasingly diverse range of organizations lead to a true understanding of the technology's applicability, risks and benefits. Commercial off-the-shelf methodologies and tools become available to ease the development process."

"Plateau of productivity. The real-world benefits of the technology are demonstrated and accepted. Tools and methodologies are increasingly stable as they enter their second and third generation. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or only benefits a niche market."

Gartner's hype cycle helps us understand not only the emergence of new technologies, but can help us design strategies in marketing and assessing their potential. To read more, visit Gartner's site which explores these notions, in more detail.

http://www.gartner.com/pages/story.php.id.8795.s.8.jsp

Thanks, and take care, Timothy